Performance Performance
Determining and comparing performance figures between web sites, mutual funds, and financial analysts is a difficult task. There are a large number of ways that performance can be measured and reported. Some are useful, others are not. Because of this wide variety of formats, we've chosen to calculate and report our performance in a number of different ways. If you have questions about any of the following figures, please contact us ( ).
We should note that past performance is not always a good predictor of future returns. In addition, these returns are not audited by any independent agency. Finally, and importantly, they do not account for trading fees or income taxes incurred. See below, however, for links to the complete detail of all entries on the Prospect List. None of the returns take into consideration taxes or commissions.
| Return Since Inception | +44.43% |
| NASDAQ Return | - 34.04% |
| DJIA Return | - 15.87% |
| S&P-500 Return | - 20.06% |
| Russell 2000 Return | - 4.88% |
This is probably closer to the types of returns you are used to seeing. Calculating it in a rolling Prospect List was difficult, however. Starting with the first Prospects on our first Daily Report on 5/13/1999, we simulated a fictional trading account assuming each Prospect received a $10,000 investment. The base number used for the return calculation corresponds to the amount of capital that was "added" over the life of the Prospect List in order to fund the $10,000 per investment rule (a little over $250,000 because profits from prior Prospects handled the rest). The return is calculated as the percent increase in the value of the trading account above that number. In other words, if you had started with a trading account a little over $250,000 and invested in every Prospect that made it to the Prospect List, you would have seen the return shown above. The market averages shown are calculated from 5/13/1999. When comparing these to returns from other sites, note that some may include the impact of taxes and fees. These returns nor the index numbers take neither into account. Why? At modern online trading sites, commissions on even a $10,000 investment amount to a rounding error. We don't subtract taxes because we don't know what your tax bracket is and many of you trade within an IRA account, effectively negating the impact of taxes on performance.
NymbleInvestor.com Fire Sale Portfolio |
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CSCO |
27 3/16 |
11.24 |
175 |
4,757.81 |
13.98% |
1,967.00 |
14.97% |
-58.66% |
EXDS |
15 1/2 |
0.01 |
150 |
2,325.00 |
6.74% |
1.50 |
0.01% |
-99.94% |
JDSU |
32 13/16 |
6.11 |
150 |
4,921.88 |
14.37% |
916.50 |
6.98% |
-81.38% |
TQNT |
22 7/8 |
17.25 |
100 |
2,287.50 |
6.71% |
1,725.00 |
13.13% |
-24.59% |
APCC |
12 9/32 |
11.61 |
200 |
2,456.25 |
7.14% |
2,322.00 |
17.67% |
-5.47% |
DIGL |
32 3/4 |
10.22 |
100 |
3,275.00 |
9.27% |
1,022.00 |
7.78% |
-68.79% |
NOK |
22.48 |
15.68 |
150 |
3,372.00 |
9.47% |
2,352.00 |
17.90% |
-30.25% |
TXN |
30.36 |
23.65 |
100 |
3,036.00 |
8.92% |
2,365.00 |
18.00% |
-22.10% |
TTP |
30.69 |
6.25 |
75 |
2,301.75 |
6.88% |
468.75 |
3.57% |
-79.64% |
ALLP * |
2 21/32 |
1.15 |
0 |
3,187.50 |
9.54% |
1,380.00 |
0.00% |
-56.71% |
PPRO * |
12 3/4 |
2.40 |
0 |
2,550.00 |
6.98% |
480.00 |
0.00% |
-81.18% |
Totals |
$34,470.69 |
$14,999.75 |
-56.49% |
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NASDAQ |
-36.23% |
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Dow Indu. |
-17.21% |
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S&P-500 |
-18.68% |
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Russell 2K |
-18.13% |
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The NymbleInvestor.com Fire Sale Portfolio™ was created on February 26, 2001. The FireSale Portfolio hit its downside limit (revised) on September 27th. The figures in the table above represent the closing figures for the portfolio. The basic idea behind this high-risk portfolio wais our belief at the time of inception the risk of a 50% downside move in the stocks was less than the chances of a 100% upside move in the following 12-18 months. For more information, we suggest you read the Daily Report (you'll need to be a Subscriber) the day the Fire Sale Portfolio was created or this abbreviated version availble to everyone.
| Average Annualized Return Since Inception | +296.51% |
| NASDAQ Annualized Return | - 14.06% |
| Average Annualized Return 2000 | + 374.59% |
| NASDAQ Annualized Return 2000 | - 39.27% |
| Average Annualized Return 1999 | + 247.51% |
| NASDAQ Annualized Return 1999 | + 90.22% |
We use an average annualized return figure to signify the return we've achieved on any one Prospect. If past returns were predictive of future return, you could assume that (on average) any Prospect you chose from our Daily Report would return to you this figure on an annualized basis. Since not all Subscribers have sufficient capital nor the desire to do the due diligence required to follow every Prospect, we think this is an important figure to report. (Note that the 1999 return is calculated from our inception date of 5/13/1999 and the 1999 and 2000 returns are calculated only from Prospects closed during those years. Some Prospects initiated in 1999 and 2000 are still open.) The NASDAQ figures shown above are calculated in the same annualized return fashion.
Investing $10,000 per Prospect |
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| Earned Since Inception | $ 117,358.91 |
| Earned in 2000 | $ 91,154.02 |
| Earned in 1999 | $ 43,443.48 |
For those who are bottom line people, we include these measurements of past performance. If you had invested $10,000 in each of the Prospects that made it to the Prospect List in the time periods shown above, you would have cleared the amounts of money indicated above before taxes or commissions. Since profits/losses are not booked until the trade is closed out, this measurement represents only those Prospects that have been closed. Remember, calculations for 1999 began on 5/13/1999 which was the day we started publishing the Daily Report.
The grid below contains all the Prospects that are currently open Prospects as well as all those that have been closed on or after January 1, 2001 (scroll to the bottom to see our most recent picks). To see all the Prospects that were closed in 1999, click here (be aware the table is 301K or about a 90 second download at 28.8). To see all the Prospects that were closed in 2000, click here (be aware the table is 345K or about a 115 second download at 28.8). To see what was said about each prospect, go to the Previous Prospects list.
Some browsers will need to scroll right to see all the columns.
Recent & Currently Open Prospects Detail
| Ticker | Open Date | Previous Close | Estimated Open Price | Current Price | Estimated Close Price | Close Date | Return | Annualized Return | Prospect Type | Short Flag |
SMH |
01/03/01 |
48 5/16 |
46 7/8 |
53 |
01/03/01 |
13.07% |
4769.33% |
Special |
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XOXO |
01/04/01 |
20 1/16 |
24 1/2 |
23 15/16 |
01/04/01 |
-2.30% |
-838.01% |
Swing Trade |
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FTU |
01/04/01 |
30 1/8 |
31 1/4 |
31 1/2 |
01/04/01 |
0.80% |
292.00% |
Swing Trade |
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BSYS |
01/09/01 |
51 9/16 |
51 13/16 |
53 |
01/11/01 |
2.29% |
278.85% |
Swing Trade |
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QTRN |
01/10/01 |
18 1/16 |
18 |
20 7/8 |
01/11/01 |
15.97% |
2914.93% |
Swing Trade |
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TQNT |
01/17/01 |
39 1/4 |
41 7/16 |
40 3/16 |
01/18/01 |
-3.02% |
-550.53% |
Swing Trade |
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ARTG |
01/17/01 |
22 1/16 |
24 1/2 |
20 3/8 |
01/18/01 |
-16.84% |
-3072.70% |
Swing Trade |
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SNPS |
01/22/01 |
53 3/16 |
53 5/8 |
55 1/2 |
01/23/01 |
3.50% |
638.11% |
Swing Trade |
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PDLI |
01/24/01 |
65 5/8 |
65 5/8 |
70 1/8 |
01/24/01 |
6.86% |
2502.86% |
Swing Trade |
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SDS |
01/24/01 |
48 13/16 |
49 |
49 11/16 |
01/24/01 |
1.40% |
1.95% |
Swing Trade |
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PPH |
01/26/01 |
104 7/16 |
105 |
102 |
01/29/01 |
-2.86% |
-260.71% |
Special |
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AGIL |
01/29/01 |
42 13/16 |
46 5/8 |
53 1/4 |
01/30/01 |
14.21% |
2593.16% |
Swing Trade |
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MFNX |
01/30/01 |
16 7/8 |
17 1/8 |
16 3/4 |
01/30/01 |
-2.19% |
-799.27% |
Swing Trade |
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KEM |
01/30/01 |
22.85 |
22.40 |
22.60 |
02/02/01 |
0.89% |
81.47% |
Swing Trade |
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SEBL |
02/06/01 |
68 1/8 |
68 1/8 |
66 7/16 |
02/06/01 |
-2.48% |
-904.13% |
Swing Trade |
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CTXS |
02/08/01 |
32 11/16 |
32 7/8 |
32 1/16 |
02/08/01 |
-2.47% |
-902.09% |
Swing Trade |
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FITB |
02/08/01 |
58 1/2 |
58 7/8 |
57 5/8 |
02/09/01 |
-2.12% |
-387.47% |
Swing Trade |
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NITE |
02/13/01 |
20 3/8 |
20 3/8 |
19 7/8 |
02/14/01 |
-2.45% |
-447.85% |
Swing Trade |
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OXHP |
02/13/01 |
35 1/16 |
35 3/16 |
34 3/16 |
02/15/01 |
-2.84% |
-345.77% |
Swing Trade |
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BCHE |
02/01/01 |
34 9/16 |
34 1/2 |
35 |
02/23/01 |
1.45% |
23.00% |
Swing Trade |
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ONIS |
03/02/01 |
38 15/16 |
34 1/2 |
33 11/16 |
03/02/01 |
-2.36% |
-859.60% |
Swing Trade |
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VRSN |
03/02/01 |
54 |
49 1/4 |
48 |
03/05/01 |
-2.54% |
-231.60% |
Swing Trade |
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VSH |
03/05/01 |
18.89 |
19.40 |
21.00 |
03/07/01 |
8.25% |
1003.44% |
Swing Trade |
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NSM |
03/05/01 |
22.81 |
23.60 |
24.70 |
03/08/01 |
4.66% |
425.32% |
Swing Trade |
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GSPN |
03/07/01 |
24 1/16 |
25 |
24 7/16 |
03/08/01 |
-2.25% |
-410.63% |
Swing Trade |
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LSCC |
03/15/01 |
19 17/32 |
20 5/16 |
19 27/32 |
03/15/01 |
-2.31% |
-842.31% |
Swing Trade |
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CSCO |
04/17/00 |
57 |
64 1/4 |
21 5/8 |
03/20/01 |
-66.34% |
-71.64% |
Long Term |
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IAH |
04/18/00 |
86 |
89 |
45.20 |
03/20/01 |
-49.21% |
-53.30% |
Long Term |
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QQQ |
12/22/00 |
56 1/16 |
58 |
43 1/10 |
03/20/01 |
-25.69% |
-105.36% |
Special |
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CEFT |
03/15/01 |
45 1/8 |
45 1/4 |
44 |
03/20/01 |
-2.76% |
-168.05% |
Swing Trade |
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USAI |
03/19/01 |
23 3/16 |
23 1/4 |
23 3/4 |
03/20/01 |
2.15% |
392.47% |
Swing Trade |
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IRF |
03/20/01 |
38.58 |
38.75 |
39.00 |
03/20/01 |
0.65% |
235.48% |
Swing Trade |
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BBH |
02/09/01 |
148.41 |
147.00 |
100.00 |
03/22/01 |
-31.97% |
-277.86% |
Special |
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IDTI |
03/23/01 |
37.10 |
38.10 |
38.75 |
03/26/01 |
1.71% |
155.68% |
Swing Trade |
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CMVT |
03/26/01 |
66.19 |
65.94 |
64.55 |
03/26/01 |
-2.11% |
-769.41% |
Swing Trade |
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ANDW |
03/26/01 |
15 21/32 |
15 13/16 |
15 13/32 |
03/26/01 |
-2.57% |
-937.75% |
Swing Trade |
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QQQ |
03/29/01 |
39.70 |
40.10 |
39.00 |
03/29/01 |
-2.74% |
-1001.25% |
Special |
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QQQ |
03/30/01 |
38.95 |
38.54 |
36.00 |
04/03/01 |
-6.59% |
-481.11% |
Swing Trade |
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ALTR |
04/13/00 |
41 |
42 1/4 |
19 1/2 |
04/04/01 |
-53.85% |
-55.05% |
Long Term |
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AMAT |
04/13/00 |
97 9/16 |
97 |
38 3/4 |
04/04/01 |
-60.05% |
-61.40% |
Long Term |
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PLXS |
04/09/01 |
23.00 |
23.60 |
26.10 |
04/10/01 |
10.59% |
1933.26% |
Swing Trade |
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GE |
04/09/01 |
41.17 |
41.60 |
45.03 |
04/10/01 |
8.25% |
1504.75% |
Swing Trade |
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LTXX |
04/10/01 |
18.00 |
18.00 |
19.63 |
04/10/01 |
9.06% |
3305.28% |
Swing Trade |
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QQQ |
04/11/01 |
39 15/19 |
42 |
41.20 |
04/11/01 |
-1.90% |
-695.24% |
Special |
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QQQ |
04/17/01 |
40.25 |
40.10 |
41.52 |
04/17/01 |
3.54% |
1292.52% |
Special |
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AMGN |
04/16/01 |
54.14 |
54.28 |
59.75 |
04/18/01 |
10.08% |
1226.08% |
Swing Trade |
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BEAS |
04/18/01 |
32.45 |
34.35 |
37.50 |
04/18/01 |
9.17% |
3347.16% |
Swing Trade |
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IDTI |
04/18/01 |
30.58 |
34.50 |
37.50 |
04/18/01 |
8.70% |
3173.91% |
Swing Trade |
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QQQ |
04/20/01 |
48.30 |
48.20 |
48.10 |
04/20/01 |
0.21% |
75.88% |
Special |
1 |
|
QQQ |
04/20/01 |
48.30 |
48.10 |
46.85 |
04/23/01 |
-2.60% |
-237.14% |
Special |
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SDS |
04/24/01 |
50.09 |
50.15 |
52.96 |
04/25/01 |
5.60% |
1022.58% |
Swing Trade |
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RETK |
04/25/01 |
26.63 |
26.35 |
28.53 |
04/25/01 |
8.27% |
3019.73% |
Swing Trade |
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EFDS |
04/25/01 |
20.70 |
20.79 |
22.35 |
04/26/01 |
7.50% |
1369.41% |
Swing Trade |
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MLNM |
04/26/01 |
33.49 |
33.82 |
35.30 |
04/26/01 |
4.38% |
1597.28% |
Swing Trade |
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SANM |
04/26/01 |
26.50 |
27.25 |
26.65 |
04/26/01 |
-2.20% |
-803.67% |
Swing Trade |
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CLS |
04/26/01 |
46.40 |
46.65 |
48.72 |
04/27/01 |
4.44% |
809.81% |
Swing Trade |
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SMH |
04/30/01 |
49.50 |
50.10 |
51.70 |
04/30/01 |
3.19% |
1165.67% |
Swing Trade |
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BEAS |
04/30/01 |
38.25 |
39.90 |
41.03 |
04/30/01 |
2.83% |
1033.71% |
Swing Trade |
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JNPR |
05/02/01 |
63.25 |
66.10 |
66.87 |
05/02/01 |
1.16% |
425.19% |
Swing Trade |
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CS |
04/30/01 |
15.21 |
15.56 |
17.40 |
05/03/01 |
11.83% |
1079.05% |
Swing Trade |
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JBL |
05/02/01 |
29.75 |
31.00 |
32.00 |
05/03/01 |
3.23% |
588.71% |
Swing Trade |
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ANDW |
05/10/01 |
17.13 |
17.33 |
16.95 |
05/10/01 |
-2.19% |
-800.35% |
Swing Trade |
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FLEX |
05/10/01 |
28.48 |
29.70 |
28.97 |
05/10/01 |
-2.46% |
-897.14% |
Swing Trade |
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MSFT |
05/07/01 |
70.75 |
70.88 |
69.13 |
05/11/01 |
-2.47% |
-180.23% |
Swing Trade |
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QQQ |
05/09/01 |
48.20 |
46.85 |
44.10 |
05/14/01 |
6.24% |
379.35% |
Swing Trade |
1 |
|
LGTO |
05/14/01 |
15.27 |
15.29 |
14.84 |
05/15/01 |
-2.94% |
-537.12% |
Swing Trade |
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VRTS |
05/17/01 |
68.01 |
68.21 |
71.44 |
05/17/01 |
4.74% |
1728.41% |
Swing Trade |
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ABGX |
05/17/01 |
36.23 |
36.35 |
39.57 |
05/17/01 |
8.86% |
3233.29% |
Swing Trade |
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ADBE |
05/17/01 |
41.09 |
41.31 |
42.52 |
05/18/01 |
2.93% |
534.56% |
Swing Trade |
||
PLXS |
05/21/01 |
33.95 |
34.05 |
37.90 |
05/22/01 |
11.31% |
2063.51% |
Swing Trade |
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GLW |
05/22/01 |
22.65 |
23.22 |
22.67 |
05/23/01 |
-2.37% |
-432.28% |
Swing Trade |
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AAPL |
05/22/01 |
23.56 |
23.95 |
23.39 |
05/23/01 |
-2.34% |
-426.72% |
Swing Trade |
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ADI |
06/04/01 |
45.90 |
46.20 |
45.10 |
06/04/01 |
-2.38% |
-869.05% |
Swing Trade |
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VRTS |
06/04/01 |
68.79 |
68.65 |
72.75 |
06/05/01 |
5.97% |
1089.95% |
Swing Trade |
||
RATL |
05/31/01 |
23.29 |
23.59 |
26.47 |
06/06/01 |
12.21% |
636.59% |
Swing Trade |
||
EXDS |
06/06/01 |
33.33 |
33.10 |
32.53 |
06/06/01 |
-1.72% |
-628.55% |
Swing Trade |
||
ADLAC |
05/31/01 |
38.02 |
38.16 |
41.55 |
06/07/01 |
8.88% |
405.32% |
Swing Trade |
||
SY |
06/04/01 |
16.02 |
16.09 |
16.72 |
06/11/01 |
3.92% |
178.64% |
Swing Trade |
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DELL |
06/19/01 |
23.92 |
24.58 |
23.98 |
06/19/01 |
-2.44% |
-890.97% |
Swing Trade |
||
ADBE |
06/19/01 |
40.54 |
42.02 |
42.45 |
06/19/01 |
1.02% |
373.51% |
Swing Trade |
||
ADI |
06/19/01 |
41.10 |
43.05 |
42.05 |
06/19/01 |
-2.32% |
-847.85% |
Swing Trade |
||
VRTS |
06/20/01 |
65.49 |
63.48 |
63.30 |
06/25/01 |
-0.28% |
-17.25% |
Swing Trade |
||
MHP |
06/20/01 |
66.39 |
66.60 |
64.90 |
06/25/01 |
-2.55% |
-155.28% |
Swing Trade |
||
CMVT |
06/25/01 |
57.81 |
58.00 |
56.50 |
06/25/01 |
-2.59% |
-943.97% |
Swing Trade |
||
IDTI |
06/25/01 |
27.09 |
27.88 |
27.18 |
06/25/01 |
-2.51% |
-916.43% |
Swing Trade |
||
DELL |
06/27/01 |
25.00 |
25.76 |
26.57 |
06/28/01 |
3.14% |
573.85% |
Swing Trade |
||
ACLS |
06/29/01 |
15.19 |
15.17 |
14.85 |
06/30/01 |
-2.11% |
-384.97% |
Swing Trade |
||
LTXX |
06/27/01 |
25.35 |
24.73 |
25.25 |
07/02/01 |
2.10% |
127.91% |
Swing Trade |
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IWM |
12/27/00 |
93 1/32 |